In May the voters of Scotland, fearing a Tory majority in Westminster, increased the share of the vote for the Labour Party across the nation with a number of constituencies giving the Labour candidate over 50% of the vote. The Lib Dem vote at 19% in Scotland hardly set the heather on fire at a national level and the lack of increase in the number of seats won in 2005 (and the loss of Dunfermline and West Fife) was a disappointing result.
Scotland rejected the Tories comprehensively in May this year with only one MP being returned and a share of the vote that at 17% compares badly with England at 40% and even 26% in Wales. Furthermore, it is clear that voters clearly differentiate their Holyrood & Westminster votes for the SNP. They were the second largest party in Holyrood in 1999 and 2004 and the largest by one in 2007 attracting around 32% of the vote. This far exceeds the 20% they got in May at the General Election. The election performance of the Scottish Lib Dems has been constant at around 13% of the vote every election since 1999.
What all this rudimentary examination of election statistics demonstrates is that next year’s election will be the toughest for the Scottish Liberal Democrats since devolution and will be for one simple reason – the Westminster Coalition with the Tories.
The catcall of ‘Vote Lib Dem, Get Tory’ will be heard at every hustings (and will be on every SNP and Labour Leaflet). By the time the election takes place the impact of budget cuts will be clearer and the message being drummed into each voter by SNP and Labour activists will be that they will be the only ones to protect the voters from the evil cut making Coalition Government in Westminster.
Of course, this is a lie. Despite the delusions of grandeur suffered by Alex Salmond, he is not the master of all he surveys. The vast majority of what the Scottish Government spends comes from Westminster via the Barnett Formula. Whatever cuts happen in England will happen in Scotland as well. And that is just public spending. Changes to benefits, entitlements and VAT are also solely within the remit of Westminster so Labour in Scotland cannot help people somehow change the impact of the Emergency Budget.
Due to the inevitability of the lies, the Scottish Liberal Democrats need to offer the people of Scotland something different and, frankly, something positive. For too long, the Scottish Liberal Democrats, as well as the other parties in Scotland, have been defining themselves as being ‘against’ many things rather then something positive and new for Scotland.
We can start by highlighting what we have achieved in government. Even a simple reading of the Coalition Agreement shows the range and depth of the influence that the Liberal Democrats have had in Government – reducing taxes on the lowest earners, increased civil liberties and banking reform. It goes further than just a programme for Government through. As Malc blogged over at Better Nation, the Lib Dems hold the position of Secretary of State for Scotland and can use that position to demonstrate something that neither the SNP nor Labour can offer the people of Scotland – real power and influence in Westminster. Recent events have shown that in practice as Tavish Scott has been able to arrange an additional meeting with the Defence Secretary regarding the construction of two air craft carriers in Scotland.
But that influence and obvious power is, unfortunately, not enough. The SNP and Labour will be ‘against’ Westminster (read Lib Dem & Tory) cuts which will be a powerful narrative so we must instead offer an idea for Scotland that is so different from what has gone before that the message is so much more far-reaching and game changing that any comparison with the offering from other parties will seem pedestrian and lacking in aspiration. We need to be Radical.
Coming Soon – It’s going to be tough – so let’s be Radical! (Part 2)